Football

[lucdahlmann94-art]

import streamlit as st
import pandas as pd
from scipy.stats import poisson
import requests
import time

SIMULATIONS = 10000
MAX_GOALS = 6
API_KEY = "DEIN_API_KEY"
HEADERS = {"X-Auth-Token": API_KEY}
LIVE_API_URL = "https://api.football-data.org/v4/matches/live"

--- Daten laden ---

top_picks = pd.read_csv("data/top_picks.csv")
score_table = pd.read_csv("data/score_probs.csv")
players_df = pd.read_csv("data/players.csv")
teams_df = pd.read_csv("data/teams.csv")

--- Funktionen ---

def calculate_team_strength(team_name):
team = teams_df[teams_df["team"]==team_name].iloc[0]
lineup = players_df[players_df["team"]==team_name]
base_attack = team["goals_per_game"] + team["xG"]
base_defense = team["conceded_per_game"] + team["xGA"]
fitness = lineup["fitness"].mean()
chemistry = lineup.get("games_with", pd.Series([0])).mean()
attack = base_attack * (1 + 0.05fitness + 0.02chemistry)
defense = base_defense * (1 - 0.02*chemistry)
return attack, defense

def score_probabilities(home_lambda, away_lambda):
scores=[]
for h in range(MAX_GOALS+1):
for a in range(MAX_GOALS+1):
prob = poisson.pmf(h, home_lambda)*poisson.pmf(a, away_lambda)
scores.append({"home_goals":h,"away_goals":a,"probability":prob})
return pd.DataFrame(scores).sort_values("probability",ascending=False)

def live_simulation(live_data):
home_attack, home_defense = calculate_team_strength(live_data["home_team"])
away_attack, away_defense = calculate_team_strength(live_data["away_team"])
home_lambda = max(home_attack/away_defense - live_data["home_goals"],0.1)
away_lambda = max(away_attack/home_defense - live_data["away_goals"],0.1)
for sub in live_data.get("substitutions", []):
player_out = players_df[players_df["name"]==sub["player_out"]]["rating"].values[0]
player_in = players_df[players_df["name"]==sub["player_in"]]["rating"].values[0]
home_lambda += (player_in-player_out)*0.05
results={"Heimsieg":0,"Unentschieden":0,"Auswärtssieg":0}
for _ in range(SIMULATIONS):
h_goals=poisson.rvs(home_lambda)
a_goals=poisson.rvs(away_lambda)
if h_goals>a_goals: results["Heimsieg"]+=1
elif h_goals==a_goals: results["Unentschieden"]+=1
else: results["Auswärtssieg"]+=1
total=sum(results.values())
for k in results: results[k]/=total
return results

def fetch_live_matches():
response = requests.get(LIVE_API_URL, headers=HEADERS)
data = response.json()
live_matches = []
for m in data["matches"]:
live_matches.append({
"home_team": m["homeTeam"]["name"],
"away_team": m["awayTeam"]["name"],
"home_goals": m["score"]["fullTime"]["home"],
"away_goals": m["score"]["fullTime"]["away"],
"time": m["minute"],
"substitutions": m.get("substitutions",[]),
"cards": m.get("cards",[])
})
return live_matches

--- Dashboard ---

st.title("⚽ Fußball KI – Komplettes Dashboard")

1️⃣ Top-Picks Übersicht

st.header("🏆 Top Vorhersagen des Tages")
for i, match in top_picks.head(10).iterrows():
st.subheader(f"{i+1}. {match['home']} vs {match['away']} ({match['league']})")
sim_dict = eval(match['simulation']) if isinstance(match['simulation'], str) else match['simulation']
st.write(f"Vorhersage: {match['prediction']} | Wahrscheinlichkeit: {max(sim_dict.values())*100:.1f}% | Confidence: {match['confidence']:.2f}")

2️⃣ Exakte Ergebnisse

st.header("📊 Exakte Ergebniswahrscheinlichkeiten")
selected_match = st.selectbox("Spiel auswählen", top_picks["home"] + " vs " + top_picks["away"])
home_team, away_team = selected_match.split(" vs ")
match_scores = score_table[(score_table["home"]==home_team) & (score_table["away"]==away_team)]
st.table(match_scores.head(5))

3️⃣ Live-Spiele Simulation

st.header("⚡ Live-Spiel Vorhersagen")
if st.button("Live aktualisieren"):
live_matches = fetch_live_matches()
for match in live_matches:
result = live_simulation(match)
st.write(f"{match['home_team']} vs {match['away_team']} – Live-Vorhersage: {result}")

Optional automatische Aktualisierung alle 2 Minuten

from streamlit_autorefresh import st_autorefresh
count = st_autorefresh(interval=120000, limit=None, key="live_refresh")
if count:
live_matches = fetch_live_matches()
for match in live_matches:
result = live_simulation(match)
st.write(f"{match['home_team']} vs {match['away_team']} – Live-Vorhersage: {result}")

4️⃣ Legende

st.markdown("""
Legende:

• Heimsieg / Unentschieden / Auswärtssieg = Wahrscheinlichkeit aus Simulationen
• Confidence = Modellvertrauen in die Vorhersage
• Exakte Ergebnisse = wahrscheinlichste Scorelines
  """)